Further to my previous post on this subject, I have subsequently realised that the updated waste arisings' forecasts published by Defra this month were in fact already out of date when Defra published them.
We now know that the 'revised February 2013' forecasts (published in October 2013) has been updated/superseded by this version, which has been produced to support the decision to remove central government support for Norfolk.
At first glance this seems slightly puzzling, as the forecasts for arisings in the new version are higher than the old numbers. Surely this (on it's own) would increase the case for supporting Norfolk? Apparently not.
My personal view remains that these forecasts are a bit on the low side, but at least they're moving in the right direction. My central forecast is towards the upper end of Defra's range, but at least they don't look completely out of kilter with one another.
If the only thing that had changed since February were the arisings forecasts then yes that would increase the case for Norfolk (but importantly would not necessarily *make* the case for Norfolk). However, there have been developments in other infrastructure projects which also affect the need for the Norfolk project. This is all explained in the document.
ReplyDeleteIt would be very interesting to see details of your forecasts and how you have calculated them.