ONS estimates waste sector growth of 9%

I see CIWM has spotted some positive government figures for output from the waste industry. The ONS estimates that in the 12 months to June, waste sector output rose by 9%.

CIWM then boldly claims that "the waste management industry fared especially well during the recession and continues to show strong signs of continued growth".

What CIWM has failed to appreciate is (i) this figure is a snapshot in time and (ii) the ONS estimates of waste sector output tend to be very volatile. It was only back in January that a 9% fall was published. If we turn the clock back to June 2012 (the starting point for this period), then output at that time had fallen 6% in the previous 12 months.

The ONS does indeed estimate that the waste sector's output has been "broadly flat since 2005" (i.e. zero growth during a period when landfill taxes have increased 300% driving up charges to customers). This however misses the trend of growth followed by recession and, hopefully now, recovery from recession. Far from faring "especially well", the waste industry has been hit in recent years by a double whammy of falling volumes and prices.

The ONS figures suggest to me that recyclate prices have recovered some of previously lost ground during the first half of the year. The industry is now much more exposed to these hugely volatile prices than ever before and these are driving large swings in ONS estimates. There is little doubt though that the recession has significantly impacted the waste industry, both in the UK (see the large amounts of landfill void space being written off by some of the large operators) and in Europe (opening up capacity for RDF exports).

I am amazed that the huge impacts of the recession seem to have completely passed by the sector's professional body.