Tuesday 2 July 2013

Do falling commodity prices undermine case for resource policy?

I see, via @MRWMagazine, that after two years of falling commodity prices people are starting to cotton on to the fact.

As it says in the article, falling prices for secondary materials will put upward pressure on gate fees which will, in turn, raise costs for waste producers. The commodity boom of the past decade has, to a degree, masked the extent to which higher regulatory requirements and targets in waste management have increased the (potential) burden on councils and businesses. A sustained period of lower prices will expose just how much it costs to deliver higher environmental standards.

I have never been convinced by those who have argued that competition for global resources means that the UK needs a resources policy, mirroring its carbon policy. Where is the market failure? At least for CO2, the environmental externality is clear, and along with it the justification for intervention. But resource markets are well established and function as markets should with price signals indicating relative scarcity.

Higher prices induce changes in behaviour. Demand shrinks as people find substitutes, while supply increases as higher prices incentivise new investment. Lower demand and higher supply lead to lower prices. Commodity markets have always been cyclical. This is always likely to remain the case.

I have long believed that we were heading for a period of lower prices. (I also believe that this will be followed by a period of higher prices, during which commentators will again panic and will tell policy makers that they must do something to secure resources for the UK.)

Where does this leave UK and European policy for resource security? A little redundant I suspect.

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