The big annual waste shindig has been taking place at the NEC for the past couple of days. I intend to post on some of the conference later, but my first initial observation is that there seems to be a growing divergence in views expressed by policy wonks and those by waste operators facing reality on the ground.
In particular, via @Greendipped I see that Gavin Shuker expressed ongoing concerns about scarcity (something regular readers would know I don't see as a problem), while at the same time Steve Lee gave a presentation on the first day titled "understanding the potential impact of resource scarcity and escalating commodity prices".
I have pointed out before that in reality (non-food) commodity prices are falling, and it was concern about these falling prices that was the main message to come from waste operators at the conference (see also e.g. this story). It is these operators who are facing the actual conditions at the coal face and I would certainly trust their experience more than the hypotheticals coming from others with less direct day to day experience of reality.
The waste industry is going through a very difficult period of transition. Waste volumes are down and recycling prices are falling. Policy and regulation are designed to drive the waste industry away from the traditional stable landfill based model with low capital outlay towards high up-front capital investment and large exposure to cyclical global commodity markets. Managing this transition will be difficult and there will likely be some who don't do it well.
As long as policy makers don't understand the reality of cyclical markets they are unlikely to be able to come up with a policy framework that will help the industry navigate its way in the world.
No comments:
Post a Comment